Bom Masa Geopolitik Di Eropah
Zero Hedge 19 Oktober 2020
Bom Masa Geopolitik Di Eropah
Tyler Durden
Isnin, 10/19/2020 – 03:30
Dikarang oleh Cyril Widdershoven melalui OilPrice.com,
Dalam seminggu ketika beberapa laporan minyak dan gas utama dikeluarkan, terutama IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 dan OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, konflik serantau kini berada di ambang keluar dari kawalan.
Kombinasi toksik konfrontasi ketenteraan antara Azerbaijan dan Armenia, masing-masing disokong oleh Turki dan Rusia, dan sikap konfrontasi yang diambil oleh Ankara dalam konflik Med Timur mengancam untuk meningkatkan bekalan tenaga Eropah.
Setelah berhenti sejenak dalam sikap Timur Tengah yang agresif di Turki, sebahagiannya disebabkan oleh usaha Eropah dan A.S. untuk mengurangkan keadaan, konflik Armenia-Azerbaijan telah menimbulkan ketegangan di seluruh Eropah. Pada minggu yang sama dengan projek Trans Anatolia Pipeline (TAP) membuka injap untuk membekalkan gas Azerbaijan ke Eropah Selatan, Azerbaijan menuduh Armenia menargetkan infrastruktur minyak dan gas Azerbaijan dengan peluru berpandu. Jawapan Azerbaijan adalah operasi ketenteraan skala penuh terhadap pasukan Armenia, yang boleh menyebabkan campur tangan Rusia dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Pada masa yang sama, sokongan Turki untuk Azerbaijan dapat menyebabkan peningkatan ketenteraan yang signifikan di seberang konflik.
Walau bagaimanapun, pencerobohan wilayah Turki tidak terhad kepada Kaukasus. Beberapa hari kebelakangan ini, setelah menunjukkan sedikit kelonggaran dalam konfrontasi wilayahnya dengan Yunani, Siprus, Mesir, dan Israel, menarik kembali beberapa kapal dari Med Timur, Ankara telah kembali ke daerah itu. Keputusan Ankara untuk meneruskan operasi seismik di luar pesisir di perairan Mediterania timur yang dipertikaikan bukan hanya memicu reaksi keras dari Athens, Brussels, dan Washington, tetapi berpotensi menyebabkan konfrontasi ketenteraan langsung. Erdogan selalu berusaha sebaik mungkin untuk tidak mengancam Yunani, Cyprus, dan lain-lain secara terbuka, tetapi itu nampaknya terus berubah. Kapal seismik Turki, Oruc Reis, yang disertai oleh kapal frigat Turki, telah memulakan operasinya di sebelah pulau Kastellorizo, Yunani, yang terletak dua batu dari pantai Turki. Langkah Erdogan adalah tamparan yang jelas bagi EU, NATO, dan Washington. Sebagai reaksi terhadap kritikan yang semakin meningkat, terutama dari negara-negara Eropah, seperti Perancis, Jerman, dan Yunani, yang disokong oleh Washington, Erdogan menyatakan bahawa Yunani dan Cyprus adalah sebab utama gerakan agresifnya.
Erdogan telah menuduh Athens dan Nicosia gagal menepati komitmen yang dibuat semasa rundingan sebelumnya. Dalam perselisihan yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya kepada Kesatuan Eropah dan Yunani, dia berkata, ‘kami akan terus memberikan kepada Yunani dan pentadbiran Cyprus-Yunani – yang gagal menepati janji mereka di platform EU dan NATO – jawapan yang mereka layak dapatkan di lapangan “. Pembalikan kebijakan Erdogan tidak hanya membuat rundingan yang mungkin berlaku tetapi sekarang boleh menyebabkan konfrontasi yang tidak diingini di Med Timur. Yunani, yang sudah disokong oleh negara-negara Eropah, secara terbuka menyatakan bahawa Ankara sedang merongrong segala upaya untuk membuat dan mempertahankan dialog. Kedudukan Jerman juga nampaknya telah berubah secara mendadak. Setelah berbulan-bulan dituduh oleh Athena, Nicosia dan yang lain, hanya mendengarkan permintaan dan ancaman Ankara, Menteri Luar Jerman Heiko Maas secara terbuka dan keras mengutuk keputusan Ankara ketika bercakap di Athens. Kedudukan Jerman sangat penting dalam strategi EU terhadap Turki. Erdogan harus menilai semula pilihannya dengan cepat, kerana menteri Jerman itu malah membatalkan lawatannya yang direncanakan ke Ankara minggu ini.
Ankara sejak kebelakangan ini bermain dengan api, dan Erdogan membalikkan banyak negara melawannya dengan tindakan sepihaknya di perbatasan. Dengan secara terbuka mencabar EU, dan secara tidak langsung NATO, Erdogan sedang bermain permainan berisiko. Strategi Tanah Air Biru Turki, yang saat ini digunakan, mendorong mantan musuh untuk bekerjasama dalam skala yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya, semuanya dalam usaha mengatasi ancaman Turki. Perjanjian persempadanan maritim Ankara yang diterbitkan secara meluas dengan Libya telah berlaku dengan cara yang besar. Bukan hanya Israel dan Mesir sekarang menandatangani perjanjian maritim dengan Yunani dan Cyprus, bahkan Lebanon dan Israel kini secara terbuka membincangkan perbatasan maritim mereka sendiri.
Pengembaraan tentera Erdogan ketika ini hanya dapat difahami berdasarkan tekanan dalaman, ketidakstabilan politik, dan krisis ekonomi Turki yang tidak diketahui. Dengan memusatkan kembali ketakutan dan kemarahan dari krisis dalaman terhadap bahaya luar, Erdogan dapat mempertahankan sokongan dalam negeri. Ada yang melihat keagresifan Timur Tengah Turki sebagai pernyataan berani oleh Erdogan bahawa dia tidak takut akan sekatan EU atau dia bahkan tidak menyangka itu adalah kemungkinan. Dalam beberapa hari mendatang, gambar ini dapat berubah. Semasa Sidang Kemuncak EU 15-16 Oktober, Yunani dan Cyprus pasti akan menangani langkah terbaru Turki dan mungkin meminta reaksi Eropah bersatu dan pelaksanaan sekatan, seperti yang telah diancam. Sebagai tanda anak kecilnya dia sepertinya takut akan sekatan EU, Erdogan telah membuka pantai Varosha, sebuah kota Yunani yang ditinggalkan di Cyprus Turki yang diduduki. Ini mungkin dilakukan sebagai isyarat dari Erdogan bahawa dia tidak akan mematuhi presiden TRNC yang lebih pro-Eropah Turki Siprus.
Hari-hari mendatang akan sangat penting bagi Turki dan rantau ini. Konflik wilayah yang meluas di Kaukasus dapat menutup arteri minyak dan gas utama yang membawa sumber tenaga Azerbaijan dan Asia Tengah ke Eropah. Pada masa yang sama, konfrontasi Turki-Yunani akan membahayakan projek minyak dan gas Eropah Selatan yang ada. Konfrontasi tentera laut luar pesisir tidak mungkin terhad kepada pihak-pihak tertentu yang terlibat tetapi mengancam aliran perdagangan maritim (termasuk Laut Hitam dan pengangkutan minyak dan gas Caspian). Hotspot baru yang mungkin berlaku adalah kawasan terbuka di sekitar Bosphorus, ketika tentera laut Rusia dan Mesir merancang untuk mengadakan latihan ketenteraan besar di kawasan Laut Hitam dalam beberapa minggu mendatang. Ketika ini berlaku, tentera laut Mesir harus melalui perairan Turki Bosphorus di Istanbul. Mengingat ancaman yang berterusan, ini berpotensi mencetuskan konflik serius di rantau ini.
Pergi ke Sumber
Pengarang: Tyler Durden
A Geopolitical Time Bomb In Europe
Tyler Durden
Mon, 10/19/2020 – 03:30Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via OilPrice.com,In a week when several major oil and gas reports were released, most notably the IEA World Energy Outlook 2020 and OPEC’s World Oil Outlook, a regional conflict is now on the brink of spiraling out of control.
The toxic combination of a military confrontation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, supported by Turkey and Russia respectively, and the confrontational stance that Ankara is taking in the East Med conflict are threatening to upend European energy supplies.
After a short lull in Turkey’s aggressive East Med posturing, partly due to European and U.S. efforts to de-escalate the situation, the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has reignited tensions across Europe. In the same week that the Trans Anatolia Pipeline (TAP) project opened its valves to supply Azerbaijani gas to Southern Europe, Azerbaijan accused Armenia of targetting Azerbaijani oil and gas infrastructure with missiles. Azerbaijan’s answer has been a full-scale military operation against Armenian forces, which could lead to Russian intervention in the coming days. At the same time, Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan could lead to a significant military build-up on the other side of the conflict.
Turkey’s regional aggression, however, is not confined to the Caucasus. In recent days, after showing some leniency in its regional confrontation with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel, pulling back some of its vessels from the East Med, Ankara has returned to the area. Ankara’s decision to resume offshore seismic operations in disputed eastern Mediterranean waters has not only sparked harsh reactions from Athens, Brussels, and Washington, but it has the potential to cause a direct military confrontation.Erdogan has always tried his best not to openly threaten Greece, Cyprus, and others, but that seems to be changing. The Turkish seismic vessel Oruc Reis, accompanied by Turkish frigates, has started its operations next to the Greek island of Kastellorizo, which is two miles off the Turkish coast. Erdogan’s move is a clear slap in the face for the EU, NATO, and Washington. In reaction to growing criticism, especially from European countries, such as France, Germany, and Greece, supported by Washington, Erdogan stated that Greece and Cyprus are the main reason for his aggressive moves.
Erdogan has accused Athens and Nicosia of failing to keep to the commitments made during earlier negotiations. In an unprecedented affront to the European Union and Greece, he said ‘we will continue to give Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration — who fail to keep their promises at the EU and NATO platforms — the answer they deserve on the ground”. Erdogan’s reversal of policy has not only put possible negotiations on ice but could now lead to an unwanted confrontation in the East Med. Greece, already supported by European countries, has openly stated that Ankara is undermining any efforts to create and maintain a dialogue. Germany’s position also seems to have changed dramatically. After months of being accused by Athens, Nicosia and others, of only listening to Ankara’s wishes and threats, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas openly and harshly condemned the decision of Ankara while speaking in Athens. Germany’s position is pivotal in the EU strategy towards Turkey. Erdogan should quickly reassess his options, as the German minister even canceled his planned visit to Ankara this week.
Ankara has been playing with fire lately, and Erdogan has turned multiple nations against him with his unilateral actions on the border. By openly challenging the EU, and indirectly NATO, Erdogan is playing a risky game. The Turkish Blue Homeland strategy, which is currently being employed, is driving former enemies to work together on an unprecedented scale, all in a move to quell Turkish threats. Ankara’s widely published maritime delineation agreement with Libya has backfired in a major way. Not only have Israel and Egypt now signed maritime agreements with Greece and Cyprus, but even Lebanon and Israel are now openly discussing their own maritime borders.
Erdogan’s current military adventures can only be understood in the light of internal pressure, political instability, and a Turkish economic crisis of unknown order. By refocusing fears and anger from internal crises on outside dangers, Erdogan is able to maintain domestic support. Some see Turkey’s East Med aggressiveness as a bold statement by Erdogan that he doesn’t fear EU sanctions or he doesn’t even think they are a possibility. In the coming days, this picture could change, however. During the October 15-16 EU Summit, Greece and Cyprus will be sure to address Turkey’s latest moves and possibly ask for a united European reaction and implementation of sanctions, as have already been threatened. As a sign of his little he seems to fear EU sanctions, Erdogan has opened the beaches of Varosha, an abandoned Greek town in occupied Turkish Cyprus. This was likely done as a signal from Erdogan that he will not comply with the more pro-European Turkish Cypriot president of the TRNC.
The coming days will be crucial for Turkey and the region. A widened regional conflict in the Caucasus could close the main oil and gas arteries bringing Azerbaijani and Central Asian energy resources to Europe. At the same time, a Turkish-Greek confrontation would put existing Southern European oil and gas projects at risk. Offshore naval confrontations are unlikely to be confined to the specific parties involved but threaten maritime trade flows (including the Black Sea and Caspian oil and gas transports). A possible new hotspot could be the open up around the Bosphorus, as Russian and Egyptian naval forces are planning to hold a major military exercise in the Black Sea area in the coming weeks. When this takes place, Egyptian naval forces will have to pass through the Turkish Bosphorus waters of Istanbul. In light of ongoing threats, this has the potential to spark a serious conflict in the region.
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Author: Tyler Durden
A Geopolitical Time Bomb In Europe
https://nationandstate-clone.mystagingwebsite.com/2020/10/19/a-geopolitical-time-bomb-in-europe/
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